Incumbency, term limits, and the hurdles — and opportunities — facing
challengers in the shifting world of American politics

Since Barack Obama upset Hillary Clinton to secure the nomination for president in 2008, the American political landscape has seemed increasingly volatile. Not just in the back-and-forth tug-of-war that is right vs. left politics. But also within the parties. Midterms under Barack Obama saw Tea Party candidates turn the table on the Republican establishment, ousting more moderate opponents, and coalescing in Congress in the powerful Freedom Caucus — a bloc of Republican representatives that frequently determined what legislation passed and what didn’t. 

Then came the progressive revolution that Bernie Sanders ignited after his strong second-place showing in 2016, inspiring others to challenge the status quo of the Democratic Party. The result: a partywide upheaval that saw longtime incumbents in the House of Representatives ousted in 2018 and 2020. Perhaps the biggest upset of all belongs to Donald Trump. Faced with the headwinds of a political party that worked at every step to resist his campaign, Trump was able to channel voters’ resentment at feeling ignored and shut out of the process. 

“In the last 10 to 20 years, we’ve seen a shift,” observes Valeria Sinclair-Chapman, associate professor of political science. “In the Republican Party, there is a kind of skepticism about having served previously in office. Candidates pitch themselves based on their experience in the private sector and wanting to run the government like a business. Incumbents’ time in office is now being presented as a liability.”

On the other hand, if we look at candidates running on the left, there is less a distrust of incumbency than an impatience. And this can result in party activists and leadership butting heads.  

“For someone to run against a sitting legislator, they’re actually going against the local party apparatus,” explains Sinclair-Chapman. “If they can convince voters that there’s something they can contribute that voters can’t find with the sitting legislator, the outsider status can work in their favor.”

Cue the exit of Joe Crowley and Eliot Engel in New York and Dan Lipinski in Illinois — among others. Each served in Congress for more than a decade (Engel for three), occupying powerful positions. Each lost to political outsiders who convinced voters that their opponents didn’t reflect the districts they represented in Congress. But for every insurgent victory, there are a dozen challengers who couldn’t overcome the incumbent advantage in the voting booth. 

The Inside Track

“Typically, once you’re elected, you can expect to have a long stay,” says Sinclair-Chapman.

The advantage for incumbents at election time is significant. First, there’s the name recognition. They have campaigned — and won — before. They’ve been in the headlines talking about legislation they support and what they are doing for their community. 

But it’s more than just the power of your name. 

“Parties are going to support their incumbent,” says Sinclair-Chapman. “Donors are then going to bet on people already in office. All that contributes to silencing your opposition.” 

Upwards of 80 percent of incumbents win reelection; some election cycles, that figure tops 90 percent. 

“This is also related to legislators’ ability to continue bringing home the bacon for their districts. That’s why they send newsletters about the votes they have taken and what they’re doing for their district.” 

Even if successful in challenging an incumbent, it takes time for newly elected political figures to get up and running and learn how to bring home that proverbial bacon for their constituents. 

“It takes time to learn the ropes,” comments Sinclair-Chapman. “They need to have an opportunity to gain some experience and move up. A legislator can offer a bill on their first day of office, but they might not know how to move bills throughout that process. They might not understand how to use favorable rules or assemble cosponsors and signal to others that they should vote for it. That may take some time — at least a couple terms, even more if they want to move into a position of leadership.”

Beyond learning the procedural rules, there is also the need to cultivate relationships with other legislators. Who are you having lunch with? Where are you choosing to build ties? 

Term Limits

Of course, there are other ways to oust an incumbent besides the ballot box. More than a dozen states currently impose term limits. Nebraska has the strictest limits, precluding legislators from serving for more than eight years. In other states, including Arizona, Colorado, Florida, and Ohio, legislators can serve up to 16 years. 

“Term limits are attractive,” says Sinclair-Chapman. “We think that we don’t want legislators to get used to being in office. We think that makes them more responsive.” Limiting the number of terms someone can serve creates opportunities for new people who bring fresh perspective. While the intention is sound, in practice, the results might not deliver on expectations. 

“Here’s how I say it when I’m teaching,” explains Sinclair-Chapman. “At the end of that term, we need to wonder how that official is looking to move. Are they going to the private sector? Are they going to try to influence the legislature from outside? The advantage of not having term limits, in part, is knowing who your officials are working for.” It’s all about accountability, says Sinclair-Chapman. If an official knows she can’t run for reelection, will she be more or less likely to respond to her constituents? Will she position herself in a way that’s attractive for a future employer? 

Term limits not only create a sort of pipeline to well-paid positions as lobbyists, consultants, or media commentators; they can also have a detrimental effect on a governing body’s institutional memory. 

“One of the things you lose with term limits is institutional memory and expertise. I always ask students, ‘If we’re always going to have a new person in office with less experience, then who is really running things?’ Experience brings expertise and knowledge.” 

Whether voters are looking at term limits or thinking about supporting a challenger, it’s worth pausing before casting the ballot to weigh these questions.